How Confident Are You, Really?
A finance-grade model that translates business strategy into probability of success.
What Is the Pi Trajectory Model?
Turn Assumptions Into Measurable Probabilities
The Pi Trajectory Model is a probabilistic simulation framework inspired by financial options theory and adapted to strategic decision-making. It assigns a scenario-specific probability (0–100%) to whether a business will achieve critical milestones, such as revenue targets, user growth, or operational scale, within a specified time horizon.
Unlike binary yes/no projections, this model accounts for:
-
Historical volatility in performance
-
Growth expectations
-
Runway or strategic horizon
-
Market shocks and disruptions
-
Opportunity cost of capital
-
Conviction strength (signal quality
​
Output: A probability that reflects reality, not optimism.
Who Is This For?
If You Make Decisions That Move Capital or Strategy - This Is Built For You.
The model is used by:
-
VCs validating startup growth projections
-
Founders stress-testing product or revenue milestones
-
CFOs aligning OKRs with reality
-
Operators prioritizing go-to-market strategy
-
M&A teams assessing post-acquisition ramp timelines
Whether you're navigating uncertainty in a boardroom or evaluating a pitch, the Pi Trajectory Model adds clarity, alignment, and speed to your decision process.
How It Works
Under the Hood: Explained Simply
​
The model blends techniques from financial mathematics (Black-Scholes, Jump Diffusion) with business fundamentals. Using 5 core inputs:
-
Historical Volatility - How variable is your metric over time?
-
Expected Growth Rate - Based on pipeline, team, and momentum
-
Time Horizon - 3 months or 3 years makes a big difference
-
Signal Strength - How confident are we in our data/assumption?
-
Opportunity Cost - Adjusted to your sector’s capital efficiency
All of this produces a real-time probability score of milestone success, calibrated to your domain.
Proven, Not Theoretical
We didn’t just build the model, we tested it.
We applied the Pi Trajectory Model to 300+ companies, using only historical data from prior periods (before 2023) to simulate the probability of hitting future goals - revenue and employee growth, mostly.
​
Then we compared the model’s predicted probabilities with what actually happened in 2023 and 2024.
Key Metrics:
-
Accuracy: The model correctly predicted milestone outcomes in ~93% of cases
-
Brier Score: 0.14–0.16 (measures probability calibration - lower is better)
-
AUC (Area Under Curve): 0.81–0.83 (measures ability to distinguish successful from unsuccessful outcomes)
We used no forward-looking data - just what would have been available at the time. And in most cases, the model aligned shockingly well with reality.
Use It Today
From Paper to Product
The model is now available as part of our internal decisioning framework and is being developed into a SaaS tool with:
-
Interactive probability calculators
-
Benchmark inputs by sector
-
Scenario-based goal planning
-
Strategy impact mapping
-
Board-ready reports
​